Table 3 Population 13-year risk estimates of overweight/obesity using the g-formula
Observed risk: 31.38 | Risk (%) | 95% LCL | 95% UCL | Population risk ratio | 95% LCL | 95% UCL | Population risk difference | 95% LCL | 95% UCL | Cumulative % interveneda | Average % intervenedb | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0 | Natural course | 30.7 | 28.4 | 32.7 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
1a | All subjects meet screen time recommendations | 28.5 | 25.5 | 30.6 | 0.93 | 0.86 | 0.98 | -2.21 | -4.39 | -0.71 | 97.1 | 75.1 |
Intervene only in subjects with low/medium parental ISCED | 30.1 | 27.7 | 32.1 | 0.98 | 0.94 | 1.02 | -0.56 | -1.97 | 0.54 | 49.3 | 39.3 | |
Intervene only in subjects with mother's BMI > 25 kg/m2 | 30.0 | 27.9 | 32.0 | 0.98 | 0.95 | 0.99 | -0.71 | -1.47 | -0.16 | 27.0 | 21.3 | |
1b | All subjects reduce screen time by 0.5 h/day | 30.0 | 27.9 | 32.1 | 0.98 | 0.96 | 0.99 | -0.64 | -1.16 | -0.22 | 97.1 | 75.1 |
Intervene only in subjects with low/medium parental ISCED | 30.5 | 28.3 | 32.6 | 0.99 | 0.98 | 1 | -0.17 | -0.52 | 0.09 | 49.3 | 39.3 | |
Intervene only in subjects with mother's BMI > 25 kg/m2 | 30.5 | 28.2 | 32.5 | 0.99 | 0.99 | 1 | -0.2 | -0.36 | -0.06 | 27.0 | 21.3 | |
2 | All subjects are members in sports club | 29.1 | 26.5 | 31.0 | 0.95 | 0.91 | 0.99 | -1.58 | -2.73 | -0.41 | 77.1 | 32.2 |
Intervene only in subjects with low/medium parental ISCED | 29.6 | 27.3 | 31.6 | 0.97 | 0.94 | 1 | -1.02 | -1.93 | -0.06 | 42.4 | 19.2 | |
Intervene only in subjects with mother's BMI > 25 kg/m2 | 30.0 | 27.8 | 32.1 | 0.98 | 0.96 | 1 | -0.65 | -1.08 | -0.08 | 22.0 | 9.5 | |
3 | All subjects use an active form of transport | 29.6 | 26.9 | 31.7 | 0.96 | 0.93 | 1.02 | -1.12 | -2.17 | 0.53 | 78.2 | 36.0 |
Intervene only in subjects with low/medium parental ISCED | 30.1 | 27.7 | 32.3 | 0.98 | 0.96 | 1.02 | -0.53 | -1.36 | 0.67 | 38.9 | 17.9 | |
Intervene only in subjects with mother's BMI > 25 kg/m2 | 30.3 | 28.1 | 32.1 | 0.99 | 0.98 | 1.01 | -0.4 | -0.75 | 0.27 | 21.5 | 9.8 | |
4a | All subjects meet sleep recommendations | 30.0 | 27.5 | 31.9 | 0.98 | 0.96 | 0.99 | -0.64 | -1.07 | -0.28 | 58.5 | 37.7 |
Intervene only in subjects with low/medium parental ISCED | 30.3 | 27.9 | 32.3 | 0.99 | 0.98 | 0.99 | -0.35 | -0.58 | -0.15 | 29.8 | 19.4 | |
Intervene only in subjects with mother's BMI > 25 kg/m2 | 30.4 | 28.1 | 32.4 | 0.99 | 0.99 | 1 | -0.22 | -0.36 | -0.1 | 16.9 | 10.8 | |
4b | All subjects increase sleep by 0.5 h | 30.1 | 27.6 | 32.0 | 0.98 | 0.97 | 0.99 | -0.59 | -0.94 | -0.25 | 58.5 | 37.7 |
Intervene only in subjects with low/medium parental ISCED | 30.4 | 27.9 | 32.3 | 0.99 | 0.98 | 1 | -0.32 | -0.51 | -0.13 | 29.8 | 19.4 | |
Intervene only in subjects with mother's BMI > 25 kg/m2 | 30.5 | 28.1 | 32.5 | 0.99 | 0.99 | 1 | -0.2 | -0.31 | -0.09 | 16.9 | 10.8 | |
5 | All subjects eat while doing something else non-daily | 29.5 | 26.8 | 31.5 | 0.96 | 0.91 | 1 | -1.22 | -2.72 | -0.05 | 70.5 | 27.7 |
Intervene only in subjects with low/medium parental ISCED | 29.9 | 27.2 | 31.8 | 0.97 | 0.95 | 1 | -0.8 | -1.64 | 0.09 | 37.9 | 15.8 | |
Intervene only in subjects with mother's BMI > 25 kg/m2 | 30.2 | 27.7 | 32.3 | 0.98 | 0.97 | 1 | -0.48 | -0.95 | -0.04 | 19.7 | 7.7 | |
6a | All subjects drink max 4 SSB per week | 31.6 | 29.2 | 33.5 | 1.03 | 1.01 | 1.06 | 0.97 | 0.18 | 1.82 | 78.0 | 46.4 |
Intervene only in subjects with low/medium parental ISCED | 31.4 | 28.9 | 33.4 | 1.02 | 1 | 1.04 | 0.69 | 0.15 | 1.25 | 42.1 | 26.5 | |
Intervene only in subjects with mother's BMI > 25 kg/m2 | 31.0 | 28.7 | 33.1 | 1.01 | 1 | 1.02 | 0.36 | 0.08 | 0.71 | 22.6 | 13.9 | |
6b | All subjects reduce SSB by 1/day | 31.4 | 29.0 | 33.4 | 1.02 | 1.01 | 1.05 | 0.73 | 0.16 | 1.4 | 78.0 | 46.4 |
Intervene only in subjects with low/medium parental ISCED | 31.2 | 28.8 | 33.2 | 1.02 | 1 | 1.03 | 0.5 | 0.12 | 0.93 | 42.1 | 26.5 | |
Intervene only in subjects with mother's BMI > 25 kg/m2 | 30.9 | 28.6 | 33.0 | 1.01 | 1 | 1.02 | 0.27 | 0.06 | 0.53 | 22.6 | 13.9 | |
7 | All subjects adhere to recommendation for all variables (1a, 2, 3, 4a, 5 and 6a combined) | 25.4 | 22.1 | 27.7 | 0.83 | 0.74 | 0.9 | -5.27 | -7.84 | -3.15 | 100.0 | 93.0 |
Intervene only in subjects with low/medium parental ISCED | 28.3 | 25.4 | 31.2 | 0.92 | 0.86 | 0.98 | -2.34 | -4.28 | -0.64 | 50.4 | 47.7 | |
Intervene only in subjects with mother's BMI > 25 kg/m2 | 28.7 | 26.5 | 31.3 | 0.94 | 0.91 | 0.97 | -1.96 | -2.83 | -1.05 | 27.7 | 26.0 |