Figure 1

Predicted obesity incidence (%) based on obesity incidence models (Wave II to III)^a. ^a National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health. Predicted obesity incidence (%) based on multivariate sex-specific logistic regression models (shown in Table 3) predicting incident obesity from Wave II to Wave III, and accounting for sampling strategy and including baseline MVPA (moderate to vigorous physical activity, bouts/week, Wave II) and screen time (television and video viewing, hours/week, Wave II), as well as age at wave III, household income, highest parental education, race, and season at Wave III. Selected MVPA and Screen Time levels correspond to the 25^th and 75^thpercentiles for males and females combined during Wave II. Assumes no change in screen time.