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Table 2 Conditional Probabilities Needed for Predicting Adulthood Obesity

From: The cost-effectiveness of a school-based overweight program

Women

Type

Proportion

Source

P1fa5 = P(at-risk–intervention)

0.17

[40]

P1fa3 = P(at-risk–intervention)

0.17

[40]

P1fo5 = P(overweight–intervention)

0.15

[40]

P1fo3 = P(overweight–intervention)

0.13

[40]

P2fa5 = P(at-risk–no intervention)

0.21

[40]

P2fa3 = P(at-risk–no intervention)

0.09

[40]

P2fo5 = P(overweight–no intervention)

0.18

[40]

P2fo3 = P(overweight–no intervention)

0.17

[40]

P3fa= P(obese at 21–29y/o – at-risk at 11)

0.69

[9]

P3fo= P(obese at 21–29y/o – overweight at 11)

0.83

[9]

P4fa= P(obese at 21–29y/o – not at-risk at 11)

0.13

[9]

P4fo= P(obese at 21–29y/o – not overweight at 11)

0.16

[9]

P5f= P(obese at 40 y/o –obese at 25–29 y/o)

0.85

*

P6f= P(obese at 40 y/o –not obese at 25–29 y/o)

0.12

*

Men

P1ma5 = P(at-risk–intervention)

0.14

[40]

P1ma3 = P(at-risk–intervention)

0.18

[40]

P1mo5 = P(overweight–intervention)

0.27

[40]

P1mo3 = P(overweight–intervention)

0.22

[40]

P2ma5 = P(at-risk–no intervention)

0.18

[40]

P2ma3 = P(at-risk–no intervention)

0.18

[40]

P2mo5 = P(overweight–no intervention)

0.31

[40]

P2mo3 = P(overweight–no intervention)

0.23

[40]

P3ma= P(obese at 21–29y/o – at-risk at 11)

0.69

[9]

P3mo= P(obese at 21–29y/o – overweight at 11)

0.83

[9]

P4ma= P(obese at 21–29y/o – not at-risk at 11)

0.13

[9]

P4mo= P(obese at 21–29y/o – not overweight at 11)

0.16

[9]

P5m= P(obese at 40 y/o –obese at 25–29 y/o)

0.77

*

P6m= P(obese at 40 y/o –not obese at 25–29 y/o)

0.12

*

  1. [40]Coleman KJ, Tiller CL, Sanchez J, Heath EM, Sy O, Milliken G, Dzewaltowski DA: Prevention of the Epidemic Increase in Child Risk of Overweight in Low-Income Schools: The El Paso Coordinated Approach to Child Health (El Paso). Archives of Pediatrics & Adolescent Medicine 2005, 159:217–224.
  2. [9]Whitaker RC, Wright JA, Pep e MS, Seidel KD, Dietz WH: Predicting obesity in young adulthood from childhood and parental obesity. The New England Journal of Medicine 1997, 337(13):869–873.
  3. Estimated by the authors. [47]
  4. *Calculated from NHANES I Epidemiologic Followup Study (NHEFS) with 1975 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) I data. [47]