An evaluation of transport mode shift policies on transport-related physical activity through simulations based on random forests

Table 4 Gains in T-MVPA per day after simulated transport mode shifts by educational level and transport mode – modeling transport shifts separately

	Observed	Transportation mode shift simulations^a
		Public transport	Walking	Biking	Priv. motorized
Total T-MVPA	19.0	+ 0.52	+ 0.16	+ 0.02	+ 0.82
T-MVPA in walking trips	6.8	- 0.13	+ 0.29	0.00	+ 0.42
T-MVPA in biking trips	1.2	- 0.08	- 0.02	+ 0.04	+ 0.01
T-MVPA in public transport trips	6.8	+ 0.86	- 0.05	- 0.01	+ 0.63
T-MVPA in private motorized trips	4.2	- 0.14	- 0.06	0.00	- 0.25

T-MVPA: transport-related moderate-to-vigorous physical activity expressed in min per day; Priv. motorized: private motorized transport
^aComplementary simulations, with one simulation related to each transportation mode, e.g. simulation public transport involved 11.8% more public transport trips. The original transport mode could be any of the three other modes (compared to strictly ‘private motorized’ Model 1, Model 2 and Model 3)

ISSN: 1479-5868