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Table 2 Results from health impact modelling over the lifetime (n = 2,832,241), Scenario 1 and 2

From: Better transport accessibility, better health: a health economic impact assessment study for Melbourne, Australia

Results Scenario 1 Scenario 2
Base case Sensitivity Base case Sensitivity
Higher MET value 10 years to effect Higher MET value 10 years to effect
Total life years gained 346 (110–872) 707 (205–1689) 240 (74–584) 4244 (2580-7428) 8545 (5046–15,422) 1451 (436–3592)
Total health-adjusted life years gained 553 (172–1354) 1132 (325–2686) 373 (114–926) 5431 (3062–9805) 10,912 (5990–21,227) 2153 (663–5128)
Total healthcare cost-savings AUD6M (AUD2M–15 M) AUD13M (AUD4M–30 M) AUD4M (AUD1M–10 M) AUD49M (AUD24M–98 M) AUD99M (AUD47M–211 M) AUD23M (AUD8M–56 M)
Difference in transport injury-related mortality* (absolute number) 1 (1–2) 1 (1–2) 1 (1–1) −4 (− 3 to − 5) − 4 (− 2 to − 6) −16 (− 17 to − 15)
Difference in transport injury-related morbiditya (absolute number) − 195 (− 192 to − 196) − 193 (− 188 to − 195) − 199 (− 197 to − 200) − 1166 (− 1149 to − 1174) − 1166 (− 1137 to − 1179) − 1198 (− 1204 to − 1185)
  1. Table notes: a minus means transport injury-related morbidity or mortality savings. AUD: 2010 Australian dollars; M million, MET metabolic equivalent task. Values are absolute values for the cohort