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Table 1 Model input parameters

From: Five-year cost-effectiveness analysis of the European Fans in Training (EuroFIT) physical activity intervention for men versus no intervention

PARAMETERS FOR THE BASE CASE ANALYSIS

 

Values*

Distribution for probabilistic sensitivity analysis

Source

Physical activity (transition probabilities at the end of each cycle of 12 months)

EuroFIT

 Inactive to Inactive

0.18

Beta (α = 4.0, β = 17.0)

EuroFIT RCT [20]

 Inactive to Moderately active

0.054

Beta (α = 0.34, β = 5.7)

EuroFIT RCT [20]

 Inactive to Recommended activity

0.71

Beta (α = 59.4, β = 19.6)

EuroFIT RCT [20]

 Moderately active to Moderately active

0.042

Beta (α = 0.09, β = 1.9)

EuroFIT RCT [20]

 Moderately active to Inactive

0.085

Beta (α = 0.44, β = 4.56)

EuroFIT RCT [20]

 Moderately active to Recommended activity

0.82

Beta (α = 33.8, β = 5.2)

EuroFIT RCT [20]

 Recommended activity to Recommended Activity

0.89

Beta (α = 357.9, β = 26.1)

EuroFIT RCT [20]

 Recommended activity to Inactive

0.042

Beta (α = 0.83, β = 18.2)

EuroFIT RCT [20]

 Recommended activity to Moderately active

0.023

Beta (α = 0.24, β = 9.8)

EuroFIT RCT [20]

No intervention

 Inactive to Inactive

0.33

Beta (α = 11.5, β = 21.5)

EuroFIT RCT [20]

 Inactive to Moderately active

0.12

Beta (α = 1.6, β = 10.4)

EuroFIT RCT [20]

 Inactive to Recommended activity

0.49

Beta (α = 25.0, β = 23.0)

EuroFIT RCT [20]

 Moderately active to Moderately active

0.17

Beta (α = 1.5, β = 6.6)

EuroFIT RCT [20]

 Moderately active to Inactive

0.19

Beta (α = 2.1, β = 8.0)

EuroFIT RCT [20]

 Moderately active to Recommended activity

0.58

Beta (α = 16.6, β = 10.4)

EuroFIT RCT [20]

 Recommended activity to Recommended Activity

0.80

Beta (α = 290.7, β = 58.3)

EuroFIT RCT [20]

 Recommended activity to Inactive

0.10

Beta (α = 4.2, β = 37.8)

EuroFIT RCT [20]

 Recommended activity to Moderately active

0.064

Beta (α = 1.9, β = 26.1)

EuroFIT RCT [20]

Health conditions (transition probabilities at the end of each cycle of 12 months)

 Inactive to colorectal cancer

0.015

Fixed

COSM study [30, 31]

 Inactive to heart diseases

0.011

Fixed

Meta-analysis; SALLS study [30, 32,33,34]

 Inactive to Type 2 diabetes

0.005

Fixed

EPIC-Interact study and epidemiological study [33, 35, 36]

 Inactive to stroke

0.0046

Fixed

ARIC study [37]

 Inactive to depression

0.010

Fixed

Meta-analysis; Health survey for England and Scotland [34, 35, 38]

 Moderately active to colorectal cancer

0.011

Fixed

COSM study [30, 31]

 Moderately active to heart disease

0.009

Fixed

Meta-analysis; SALLS study [30, 32,33,34]

 Moderately active to Type 2 diabetes

0.0038

Fixed

EPIC-Interact study; epidemiological study [33, 35, 36]

 Moderately active to stroke

0.0033

Fixed

ARIC study [37]

 Moderately active to depression

0.0094

Fixed

Meta-analysis; Health survey for England and Scotland [34, 35, 38]

 Recommended activity to colorectal cancer

0.0096

Fixed

COSM study [30, 31]

 Recommended activity to heart disease

0.008

Fixed

Meta-analysis; SALLS study [30, 32,33,34]

 Recommended activity to Type 2 diabetes

0.0033

Fixed

EPIC-Interact study; epidemiological study [33, 35, 36]

 Recommended activity to stroke

0.0029

Fixed

ARIC study [37]

 Recommended activity to depression

0.0092

Fixed

Meta-analysis; Health survey for England and Scotland [34, 38, 39]

Mortality (transition probabilities at the end of each cycle of 12 months)

 Inactive to death

0.016

Fixed

Meta-analysis; epidemiological study [73, 74, 75, 76]

 Moderately active to death

0.012

Fixed

Meta-analysis; epidemiological study [73, 74, 75, 76]

 Recommended activity to death

0.010

Fixed

Meta-analysis; epidemiological study [73, 74, 75, 76]

 Colorectal cancer to death

0.092

Fixed

International Cancer Benchmarking partnership registries [40]

 Coronary heart disease to death

0.002

Fixed

WONDER registry [41]

 Type 2 diabetes to death

0.015

Fixed

ZODIAC study [42]

 Stroke to death

0.400

Fixed

MONICA registry [43]

 Depression to death

0.030

Fixed

STIRLING registry [44]

Utility values

 Inactive – Base case

0.909

Beta (α = 3.0, β = 0.38)

EuroFIT RCT [20]

 Moderately active – Base case

0.919

Beta (α = 5.1, β = 0.51)

EuroFIT RCT [20]

 Recommended activity – Base case

0.922

Beta (α = 5.1, β = 0.43)

EuroFIT RCT [20]

 Colorectal cancer

0.786

Fixed

Systematic review [45]

 Coronary hearth disease

0.735

Fixed

Longitudinal survey [46]

 Stroke

0.62

Fixed

Longitudinal survey [47]

 Type 2 diabetes

0.785

Fixed

Systematic review [48]

 Depression

0.57

Fixed

Systematic review [49]

Annual costs per person according to the societal perspective (€ 2017)

 Inactive

2436

Gamma (shape = 0.19, scale = 12,658)

EuroFIT RCT [20]

 Moderately active

1506

Gamma (shape = 0.22, scale = 6920)

EuroFIT RCT [20]

 Recommended activity

1997

Gamma (shape = 0.24, scale = 8222)

EuroFIT RCT [20]

 Colorectal cancer

34,085

Fixed

Cross sectional study; Health insurance registry [50, 51]

 Coronary heart disease

5239

Fixed

Economic burden [52]

 Type 2 diabetes

5907

Fixed

Economic burden [53]

Stroke

24,979

Fixed

Economic burden [54]

 Depression

6819

Fixed

Cost-effectiveness analysis [55]

 EuroFIT program

260

Fixed

EuroFIT RCT [20]

PARAMETERS FOR THE SENSITIVITY ANALYSES

Utility values

 Inactive – Literature utilities

0.80

Fixed

Economic evaluation [24]

 Moderately active – Literature utilities

0.87

Fixed

Economic evaluation [24]

 Recommended activity – Literature utilities

0.91

Fixed

Economic evaluation [24]

Annual costs per person according to the healthcare perspective (€ 2017)

 Inactive

1107

Gamma (shape = 0.10, scale = 10,924)

EuroFIT RCT [20]

 Moderately active

594

Gamma (shape = 0.35, scale = 1707)

EuroFIT RCT [20]

 Recommended activity

747

Gamma (shape = 0.19, scale = 4040)

EuroFIT RCT [20]

 Colorectal cancer

25,346

Fixed

Cross sectional study; Health insurance registry [50, 51]

 Coronary heart disease

1954

Fixed

Economic burden [52]

 Type 2 diabetes

3089

Fixed

Economic burden [53]

 Stroke

18,750

Fixed

Economic burden [54]

 Depression

966

Fixed

Cost-effectiveness analysis [55]

  1. *Values represent probabilities, mean utilities or mean costs