Physical activity (transition probabilities at the end of each cycle of 12 months)
|
EuroFIT
|
Inactive to Inactive
|
0.18
|
Beta (α = 4.0, β = 17.0)
|
EuroFIT RCT [20]
|
Inactive to Moderately active
|
0.054
|
Beta (α = 0.34, β = 5.7)
|
EuroFIT RCT [20]
|
Inactive to Recommended activity
|
0.71
|
Beta (α = 59.4, β = 19.6)
|
EuroFIT RCT [20]
|
Moderately active to Moderately active
|
0.042
|
Beta (α = 0.09, β = 1.9)
|
EuroFIT RCT [20]
|
Moderately active to Inactive
|
0.085
|
Beta (α = 0.44, β = 4.56)
|
EuroFIT RCT [20]
|
Moderately active to Recommended activity
|
0.82
|
Beta (α = 33.8, β = 5.2)
|
EuroFIT RCT [20]
|
Recommended activity to Recommended Activity
|
0.89
|
Beta (α = 357.9, β = 26.1)
|
EuroFIT RCT [20]
|
Recommended activity to Inactive
|
0.042
|
Beta (α = 0.83, β = 18.2)
|
EuroFIT RCT [20]
|
Recommended activity to Moderately active
|
0.023
|
Beta (α = 0.24, β = 9.8)
|
EuroFIT RCT [20]
|
No intervention
|
Inactive to Inactive
|
0.33
|
Beta (α = 11.5, β = 21.5)
|
EuroFIT RCT [20]
|
Inactive to Moderately active
|
0.12
|
Beta (α = 1.6, β = 10.4)
|
EuroFIT RCT [20]
|
Inactive to Recommended activity
|
0.49
|
Beta (α = 25.0, β = 23.0)
|
EuroFIT RCT [20]
|
Moderately active to Moderately active
|
0.17
|
Beta (α = 1.5, β = 6.6)
|
EuroFIT RCT [20]
|
Moderately active to Inactive
|
0.19
|
Beta (α = 2.1, β = 8.0)
|
EuroFIT RCT [20]
|
Moderately active to Recommended activity
|
0.58
|
Beta (α = 16.6, β = 10.4)
|
EuroFIT RCT [20]
|
Recommended activity to Recommended Activity
|
0.80
|
Beta (α = 290.7, β = 58.3)
|
EuroFIT RCT [20]
|
Recommended activity to Inactive
|
0.10
|
Beta (α = 4.2, β = 37.8)
|
EuroFIT RCT [20]
|
Recommended activity to Moderately active
|
0.064
|
Beta (α = 1.9, β = 26.1)
|
EuroFIT RCT [20]
|
Health conditions (transition probabilities at the end of each cycle of 12 months)
|
Inactive to colorectal cancer
|
0.015
|
Fixed
|
COSM study [30, 31]
|
Inactive to heart diseases
|
0.011
|
Fixed
|
Meta-analysis; SALLS study [30, 32,33,34]
|
Inactive to Type 2 diabetes
|
0.005
|
Fixed
|
EPIC-Interact study and epidemiological study [33, 35, 36]
|
Inactive to stroke
|
0.0046
|
Fixed
|
ARIC study [37]
|
Inactive to depression
|
0.010
|
Fixed
|
Meta-analysis; Health survey for England and Scotland [34, 35, 38]
|
Moderately active to colorectal cancer
|
0.011
|
Fixed
|
COSM study [30, 31]
|
Moderately active to heart disease
|
0.009
|
Fixed
|
Meta-analysis; SALLS study [30, 32,33,34]
|
Moderately active to Type 2 diabetes
|
0.0038
|
Fixed
|
EPIC-Interact study; epidemiological study [33, 35, 36]
|
Moderately active to stroke
|
0.0033
|
Fixed
|
ARIC study [37]
|
Moderately active to depression
|
0.0094
|
Fixed
|
Meta-analysis; Health survey for England and Scotland [34, 35, 38]
|
Recommended activity to colorectal cancer
|
0.0096
|
Fixed
|
COSM study [30, 31]
|
Recommended activity to heart disease
|
0.008
|
Fixed
|
Meta-analysis; SALLS study [30, 32,33,34]
|
Recommended activity to Type 2 diabetes
|
0.0033
|
Fixed
|
EPIC-Interact study; epidemiological study [33, 35, 36]
|
Recommended activity to stroke
|
0.0029
|
Fixed
|
ARIC study [37]
|
Recommended activity to depression
|
0.0092
|
Fixed
|
Meta-analysis; Health survey for England and Scotland [34, 38, 39]
|
Mortality (transition probabilities at the end of each cycle of 12 months)
|
Inactive to death
|
0.016
|
Fixed
|
Meta-analysis; epidemiological study [73, 74, 75, 76]
|
Moderately active to death
|
0.012
|
Fixed
|
Meta-analysis; epidemiological study [73, 74, 75, 76]
|
Recommended activity to death
|
0.010
|
Fixed
|
Meta-analysis; epidemiological study [73, 74, 75, 76]
|
Colorectal cancer to death
|
0.092
|
Fixed
|
International Cancer Benchmarking partnership registries [40]
|
Coronary heart disease to death
|
0.002
|
Fixed
|
WONDER registry [41]
|
Type 2 diabetes to death
|
0.015
|
Fixed
|
ZODIAC study [42]
|
Stroke to death
|
0.400
|
Fixed
|
MONICA registry [43]
|
Depression to death
|
0.030
|
Fixed
|
STIRLING registry [44]
|
Utility values
|
Inactive – Base case
|
0.909
|
Beta (α = 3.0, β = 0.38)
|
EuroFIT RCT [20]
|
Moderately active – Base case
|
0.919
|
Beta (α = 5.1, β = 0.51)
|
EuroFIT RCT [20]
|
Recommended activity – Base case
|
0.922
|
Beta (α = 5.1, β = 0.43)
|
EuroFIT RCT [20]
|
Colorectal cancer
|
0.786
|
Fixed
|
Systematic review [45]
|
Coronary hearth disease
|
0.735
|
Fixed
|
Longitudinal survey [46]
|
Stroke
|
0.62
|
Fixed
|
Longitudinal survey [47]
|
Type 2 diabetes
|
0.785
|
Fixed
|
Systematic review [48]
|
Depression
|
0.57
|
Fixed
|
Systematic review [49]
|
Annual costs per person according to the societal perspective (€ 2017)
|
Inactive
|
2436
|
Gamma (shape = 0.19, scale = 12,658)
|
EuroFIT RCT [20]
|
Moderately active
|
1506
|
Gamma (shape = 0.22, scale = 6920)
|
EuroFIT RCT [20]
|
Recommended activity
|
1997
|
Gamma (shape = 0.24, scale = 8222)
|
EuroFIT RCT [20]
|
Colorectal cancer
|
34,085
|
Fixed
|
Cross sectional study; Health insurance registry [50, 51]
|
Coronary heart disease
|
5239
|
Fixed
|
Economic burden [52]
|
Type 2 diabetes
|
5907
|
Fixed
|
Economic burden [53]
|
Stroke
|
24,979
|
Fixed
|
Economic burden [54]
|
Depression
|
6819
|
Fixed
|
Cost-effectiveness analysis [55]
|
EuroFIT program
|
260
|
Fixed
|
EuroFIT RCT [20]
|
PARAMETERS FOR THE SENSITIVITY ANALYSES
|
Utility values
|
Inactive – Literature utilities
|
0.80
|
Fixed
|
Economic evaluation [24]
|
Moderately active – Literature utilities
|
0.87
|
Fixed
|
Economic evaluation [24]
|
Recommended activity – Literature utilities
|
0.91
|
Fixed
|
Economic evaluation [24]
|
Annual costs per person according to the healthcare perspective (€ 2017)
|
Inactive
|
1107
|
Gamma (shape = 0.10, scale = 10,924)
|
EuroFIT RCT [20]
|
Moderately active
|
594
|
Gamma (shape = 0.35, scale = 1707)
|
EuroFIT RCT [20]
|
Recommended activity
|
747
|
Gamma (shape = 0.19, scale = 4040)
|
EuroFIT RCT [20]
|
Colorectal cancer
|
25,346
|
Fixed
|
Cross sectional study; Health insurance registry [50, 51]
|
Coronary heart disease
|
1954
|
Fixed
|
Economic burden [52]
|
Type 2 diabetes
|
3089
|
Fixed
|
Economic burden [53]
|
Stroke
|
18,750
|
Fixed
|
Economic burden [54]
|
Depression
|
966
|
Fixed
|
Cost-effectiveness analysis [55]
|