| Physical activity (transition probabilities at the end of each cycle of 12 months) |
| EuroFIT |
| Inactive to Inactive | 0.18 | Beta (α = 4.0, β = 17.0) | EuroFIT RCT [20] |
| Inactive to Moderately active | 0.054 | Beta (α = 0.34, β = 5.7) | EuroFIT RCT [20] |
| Inactive to Recommended activity | 0.71 | Beta (α = 59.4, β = 19.6) | EuroFIT RCT [20] |
| Moderately active to Moderately active | 0.042 | Beta (α = 0.09, β = 1.9) | EuroFIT RCT [20] |
| Moderately active to Inactive | 0.085 | Beta (α = 0.44, β = 4.56) | EuroFIT RCT [20] |
| Moderately active to Recommended activity | 0.82 | Beta (α = 33.8, β = 5.2) | EuroFIT RCT [20] |
| Recommended activity to Recommended Activity | 0.89 | Beta (α = 357.9, β = 26.1) | EuroFIT RCT [20] |
| Recommended activity to Inactive | 0.042 | Beta (α = 0.83, β = 18.2) | EuroFIT RCT [20] |
| Recommended activity to Moderately active | 0.023 | Beta (α = 0.24, β = 9.8) | EuroFIT RCT [20] |
| No intervention |
| Inactive to Inactive | 0.33 | Beta (α = 11.5, β = 21.5) | EuroFIT RCT [20] |
| Inactive to Moderately active | 0.12 | Beta (α = 1.6, β = 10.4) | EuroFIT RCT [20] |
| Inactive to Recommended activity | 0.49 | Beta (α = 25.0, β = 23.0) | EuroFIT RCT [20] |
| Moderately active to Moderately active | 0.17 | Beta (α = 1.5, β = 6.6) | EuroFIT RCT [20] |
| Moderately active to Inactive | 0.19 | Beta (α = 2.1, β = 8.0) | EuroFIT RCT [20] |
| Moderately active to Recommended activity | 0.58 | Beta (α = 16.6, β = 10.4) | EuroFIT RCT [20] |
| Recommended activity to Recommended Activity | 0.80 | Beta (α = 290.7, β = 58.3) | EuroFIT RCT [20] |
| Recommended activity to Inactive | 0.10 | Beta (α = 4.2, β = 37.8) | EuroFIT RCT [20] |
| Recommended activity to Moderately active | 0.064 | Beta (α = 1.9, β = 26.1) | EuroFIT RCT [20] |
| Health conditions (transition probabilities at the end of each cycle of 12 months) |
| Inactive to colorectal cancer | 0.015 | Fixed | COSM study [30, 31] |
| Inactive to heart diseases | 0.011 | Fixed | Meta-analysis; SALLS study [30, 32,33,34] |
| Inactive to Type 2 diabetes | 0.005 | Fixed | EPIC-Interact study and epidemiological study [33, 35, 36] |
| Inactive to stroke | 0.0046 | Fixed | ARIC study [37] |
| Inactive to depression | 0.010 | Fixed | Meta-analysis; Health survey for England and Scotland [34, 35, 38] |
| Moderately active to colorectal cancer | 0.011 | Fixed | COSM study [30, 31] |
| Moderately active to heart disease | 0.009 | Fixed | Meta-analysis; SALLS study [30, 32,33,34] |
| Moderately active to Type 2 diabetes | 0.0038 | Fixed | EPIC-Interact study; epidemiological study [33, 35, 36] |
| Moderately active to stroke | 0.0033 | Fixed | ARIC study [37] |
| Moderately active to depression | 0.0094 | Fixed | Meta-analysis; Health survey for England and Scotland [34, 35, 38] |
| Recommended activity to colorectal cancer | 0.0096 | Fixed | COSM study [30, 31] |
| Recommended activity to heart disease | 0.008 | Fixed | Meta-analysis; SALLS study [30, 32,33,34] |
| Recommended activity to Type 2 diabetes | 0.0033 | Fixed | EPIC-Interact study; epidemiological study [33, 35, 36] |
| Recommended activity to stroke | 0.0029 | Fixed | ARIC study [37] |
| Recommended activity to depression | 0.0092 | Fixed | Meta-analysis; Health survey for England and Scotland [34, 38, 39] |
| Mortality (transition probabilities at the end of each cycle of 12 months) |
| Inactive to death | 0.016 | Fixed | Meta-analysis; epidemiological study [73, 74, 75, 76] |
| Moderately active to death | 0.012 | Fixed | Meta-analysis; epidemiological study [73, 74, 75, 76] |
| Recommended activity to death | 0.010 | Fixed | Meta-analysis; epidemiological study [73, 74, 75, 76] |
| Colorectal cancer to death | 0.092 | Fixed | International Cancer Benchmarking partnership registries [40] |
| Coronary heart disease to death | 0.002 | Fixed | WONDER registry [41] |
| Type 2 diabetes to death | 0.015 | Fixed | ZODIAC study [42] |
| Stroke to death | 0.400 | Fixed | MONICA registry [43] |
| Depression to death | 0.030 | Fixed | STIRLING registry [44] |
| Utility values |
| Inactive – Base case | 0.909 | Beta (α = 3.0, β = 0.38) | EuroFIT RCT [20] |
| Moderately active – Base case | 0.919 | Beta (α = 5.1, β = 0.51) | EuroFIT RCT [20] |
| Recommended activity – Base case | 0.922 | Beta (α = 5.1, β = 0.43) | EuroFIT RCT [20] |
| Colorectal cancer | 0.786 | Fixed | Systematic review [45] |
| Coronary hearth disease | 0.735 | Fixed | Longitudinal survey [46] |
| Stroke | 0.62 | Fixed | Longitudinal survey [47] |
| Type 2 diabetes | 0.785 | Fixed | Systematic review [48] |
| Depression | 0.57 | Fixed | Systematic review [49] |
| Annual costs per person according to the societal perspective (€ 2017) |
| Inactive | 2436 | Gamma (shape = 0.19, scale = 12,658) | EuroFIT RCT [20] |
| Moderately active | 1506 | Gamma (shape = 0.22, scale = 6920) | EuroFIT RCT [20] |
| Recommended activity | 1997 | Gamma (shape = 0.24, scale = 8222) | EuroFIT RCT [20] |
| Colorectal cancer | 34,085 | Fixed | Cross sectional study; Health insurance registry [50, 51] |
| Coronary heart disease | 5239 | Fixed | Economic burden [52] |
| Type 2 diabetes | 5907 | Fixed | Economic burden [53] |
| Stroke | 24,979 | Fixed | Economic burden [54] |
| Depression | 6819 | Fixed | Cost-effectiveness analysis [55] |
| EuroFIT program | 260 | Fixed | EuroFIT RCT [20] |
| PARAMETERS FOR THE SENSITIVITY ANALYSES |
| Utility values |
| Inactive – Literature utilities | 0.80 | Fixed | Economic evaluation [24] |
| Moderately active – Literature utilities | 0.87 | Fixed | Economic evaluation [24] |
| Recommended activity – Literature utilities | 0.91 | Fixed | Economic evaluation [24] |
| Annual costs per person according to the healthcare perspective (€ 2017) |
| Inactive | 1107 | Gamma (shape = 0.10, scale = 10,924) | EuroFIT RCT [20] |
| Moderately active | 594 | Gamma (shape = 0.35, scale = 1707) | EuroFIT RCT [20] |
| Recommended activity | 747 | Gamma (shape = 0.19, scale = 4040) | EuroFIT RCT [20] |
| Colorectal cancer | 25,346 | Fixed | Cross sectional study; Health insurance registry [50, 51] |
| Coronary heart disease | 1954 | Fixed | Economic burden [52] |
| Type 2 diabetes | 3089 | Fixed | Economic burden [53] |
| Stroke | 18,750 | Fixed | Economic burden [54] |
| Depression | 966 | Fixed | Cost-effectiveness analysis [55] |
