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Table 5 Deaths from all causes cumulated over the 10-year projection period (among people aged ≥55 years in projection year 1)

From: Equity impacts of interventions to increase physical activity among older adults: a quantitative health impact assessment

  Males Females
Scenarios Overall Low education Medium education High education Overall Low education Medium education High education
Deaths in the reference-scenario
 #Ref: Reference-scenario 3,426,790 419,697 1,912,300 1,094,793 3,977,866 1,677,687 1,941,934 358,245
Intervention-induced health effects (Difference in deaths between intervention scenarios and reference-scenario)
 #1: PROMOTE-undifferentiated −6248 − 1065 − 2962 − 2221 −6914 − 3452 − 2912 − 550
 #2: PROMOTE-differentiated − 6713 − 1771 − 2231 − 2711 −11,422 − 8678 − 2120 −624
 #3: Downward-gradient − 7437 −1771 − 3834 − 1832 −12,605 − 8678 − 3558 − 369
 #4: Upward-gradient −10,320 − 904 − 3834 − 5582 − 7187 − 2672 − 3558 − 957
 #5: Equalizing − 59,068 − 15,199 −43,869 0 − 121,689 − 85,603 − 36,086 0
 #6: Guideline −430,143 −59,414 − 249,121 − 121,608 − 439,722 − 213,319 − 195,575 −30,828
Distribution of health benefits (Education-specific intervention effects measured against overall intervention effect)
 #1: PROMOTE-undifferentiated 100% 17.0% 47.4% 35.5% 100% 49.9% 42.1% 8.0%
 #2: PROMOTE-differentiated 100% 26.4% 33.2% 40.4% 100% 76.0% 18.6% 5.5%
 #3: Downward-gradient 100% 23.8% 51.6% 24.6% 100% 68.8% 28.2% 2.9%
 #4: Upward-gradient 100% 8.8% 37.2% 54.1% 100% 37.2% 49.5% 13.3%
 #5: Equalizing 100% 25.7% 74.3% 0.0% 100% 70.3% 29.7% 0.0%
 #6: Guideline 100% 13.8% 57.9% 28.3% 100% 48.5% 44.5% 7.0%
Proportion of the maximal achievable health gain (Intervention effects in scenarios #1 to #5 measured against intervention effect in scenario #6)
 #1: PROMOTE-undifferentiated 1.5% 1.8% 1.2% 1.8% 1.6% 1.6% 1.5% 1.8%
 #2: PROMOTE-differentiated 1.6% 3.0% 0.9% 2.2% 2.6% 4.1% 1.1% 2.0%
 #3: Downward-gradient 1.7% 3.0% 1.5% 1.5% 2.9% 4.1% 1.8% 1.2%
 #4: Upward-gradient 2.4% 1.5% 1.5% 4.6% 1.6% 1.3% 1.8% 3.1%
 #5: Equalizing 13.7% 25.6% 17.6% 0.0% 27.7% 40.1% 18.5% 0.0%
 #6: Guideline 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%