Table 5 Deaths from all causes cumulated over the 10-year projection period (among people aged ≥55 years in projection year 1)
| Â | Males | Females | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Scenarios | Overall | Low education | Medium education | High education | Overall | Low education | Medium education | High education |
Deaths in the reference-scenario | ||||||||
 #Ref: Reference-scenario | 3,426,790 | 419,697 | 1,912,300 | 1,094,793 | 3,977,866 | 1,677,687 | 1,941,934 | 358,245 |
Intervention-induced health effects (Difference in deaths between intervention scenarios and reference-scenario) | ||||||||
 #1: PROMOTE-undifferentiated | −6248 | − 1065 | − 2962 | − 2221 | −6914 | − 3452 | − 2912 | − 550 |
 #2: PROMOTE-differentiated | − 6713 | − 1771 | − 2231 | − 2711 | −11,422 | − 8678 | − 2120 | −624 |
 #3: Downward-gradient | − 7437 | −1771 | − 3834 | − 1832 | −12,605 | − 8678 | − 3558 | − 369 |
 #4: Upward-gradient | −10,320 | − 904 | − 3834 | − 5582 | − 7187 | − 2672 | − 3558 | − 957 |
 #5: Equalizing | − 59,068 | − 15,199 | −43,869 | 0 | − 121,689 | − 85,603 | − 36,086 | 0 |
 #6: Guideline | −430,143 | −59,414 | − 249,121 | − 121,608 | − 439,722 | − 213,319 | − 195,575 | −30,828 |
Distribution of health benefits (Education-specific intervention effects measured against overall intervention effect) | ||||||||
 #1: PROMOTE-undifferentiated | 100% | 17.0% | 47.4% | 35.5% | 100% | 49.9% | 42.1% | 8.0% |
 #2: PROMOTE-differentiated | 100% | 26.4% | 33.2% | 40.4% | 100% | 76.0% | 18.6% | 5.5% |
 #3: Downward-gradient | 100% | 23.8% | 51.6% | 24.6% | 100% | 68.8% | 28.2% | 2.9% |
 #4: Upward-gradient | 100% | 8.8% | 37.2% | 54.1% | 100% | 37.2% | 49.5% | 13.3% |
 #5: Equalizing | 100% | 25.7% | 74.3% | 0.0% | 100% | 70.3% | 29.7% | 0.0% |
 #6: Guideline | 100% | 13.8% | 57.9% | 28.3% | 100% | 48.5% | 44.5% | 7.0% |
Proportion of the maximal achievable health gain (Intervention effects in scenarios #1 to #5 measured against intervention effect in scenario #6) | ||||||||
 #1: PROMOTE-undifferentiated | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.8% |
 #2: PROMOTE-differentiated | 1.6% | 3.0% | 0.9% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 4.1% | 1.1% | 2.0% |
 #3: Downward-gradient | 1.7% | 3.0% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 2.9% | 4.1% | 1.8% | 1.2% |
 #4: Upward-gradient | 2.4% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 4.6% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 3.1% |
 #5: Equalizing | 13.7% | 25.6% | 17.6% | 0.0% | 27.7% | 40.1% | 18.5% | 0.0% |
 #6: Guideline | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% |