Investigating the physical activity, health, wellbeing, social and environmental effects of a new urban greenway: a natural experiment (the PARC study)

Table 5 Physical activity category by area deprivation and year (intervention sample)

	Actual proportion meeting target % (n/N)	OR^a (95% CI)	p	Adjusted OR^b (95% CI)	p	Predicted probability of meeting target^c (95% CI)
Baseline
Deprivation
1st quintile (most deprived)	68% (160/236)	1.00 (ref. cat.)		1.00 (ref. cat.)		82.2 (74.5,90.0)
2nd quintile	64% (118/185)	0.83 (0.53,1.31)	0.429	1.05 (0.64,1.70)	0.859	82.9 (75.6,90.2)
3rd quintile	66% (154/235)	0.92 (0.60,1.42)	0.714	0.78 (0.48,1.26)	0.306	78.3 (70.5,86.0)
4th quintile	74% (141/191)	1.34 (0.84,2.14)	0.221	1.21 (0.71,2.05)	0.481	84.9 (78.5,91.2)
5th quintile (least deprived)	68% (130/190)	1.05 (0.66,1.67)	0.835	0.95 (0.57,1.59)	0.845	81.5 (74.4,88.6)
Follow-up
Deprivation
1st quintile (most deprived)	59% (134/226)	1.00 (ref. cat.)		1.00 (ref. cat.)		73.3 (62.9,83.8)
2nd quintile	56% (102/181)	0.88 (0.56,1.38)	0.58	0.97 (0.60,1.58)	0.9	72.7 (62.2,83.2)
3rd quintile	63% (121/191)	1.22 (0.78,1.91)	0.386	1.04 (0.64,1.70)	0.87	74.1 (64.2,84.0)
4th quintile	67% (142/212)	1.38 (0.89,2.14)	0.156	1.36 (0.83,2.23)	0.221	78.9 (70.9,87.0)
5th quintile (least deprived)	59% (93/158)	0.99 (0.62,1.59)	0.976	1.09 (0.64,1.86)	0.755	75.0 (65.3,84.6)

CI Confidence intervals, OR Odds Ratio, ref. cat. reference category
^aOdds ratios calculated from a multilevel model logistic regression with super output area as random intercept. Unadjusted model contains year and deprivation interaction and adjusted models additionally contain age, gender, season, education (degree, A-level, GCSE, apprenticeship, none), car ownership (none,1 or more in household), marital status (married, single, divorced or widowed or separated), accommodation (owner, mortgage, rented/other), limiting long term illness (yes/no), general health (fitted as a trend across 6 categories: excellent to very poor), employed(yes, no) and weekly household income (<£230, £231 to £580, >£581)
^bP for interaction comparing OR per quintile increase in deprivation in 2010 versus 2017 after adjustment = 0.545
^cPredicted probabilities by deprivation category calculated setting age equal to 50.3, gender to female, season to winter, education to degree, car ownership to 1 or more in household, marital status to married, accommodation to owner, limiting long term illness to none, general health to the 3rd of 6 categories from, excellent to very poor, employed to yes and income to £231 to £580

ISSN: 1479-5868