Fig. 2

Predicted impact of five intervention scenarios on sports participation. a Impact on the proportion of total sports participation over time; b Impact on the proportion of sports participation by the category of sports after 25 years compared; c Impact of alternative intervention scenarios of health education, availability of sports facilities, and safety levels on sports participation after 25 years. Interventions scenarios include: 1) providing health education (effectiveness: 1.5x current tendency; reach: 15%), 2) lowering price level of expensive sports facilities to cheap; 3) increasing availability of sports facilities in five neighborhoods; 4) improving safety (target: average perceived safety score); 5) combining all previous interventions. The shaded area represents the 95% uncertainty interval due to parameter uncertainty and stochastic variation. Alternative intervention scenarios include: 1) varying effect of health education on an individual’s current tendency (1.5x, 2x, 2.5x, 3x current tendency) and its reach (15 and 50%); 2) increasing the number of neighborhoods with new sports facilities (10, 15, 20, 30, 50); 3) increasing the target level of safety (high level). The squares represent the outcomes of the intervention scenarios, and circles represent the outcomes of alternative intervention scenarios. The error bars represent the 95% interval due to parameter uncertainty and stochastic variation