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Table 4 The Impact Of Health-Related Claims (HRCs), In Different Regulatory Scenarios, On Uk Mortality From Non-Communicable Diseases (95% Uncertainty Intervals)

From: Regulating health and nutrition claims in the UK using a nutrient profile model: an explorative modelled health impact assessment

  ‘HRCs restricted’ models ‘HRCs restricted & reformulated’ models
Deaths averted or delayed: 1a – FSANZ NPSC 2a - EU model 1b – FSANZ NPSC 2b - EU model
Total −258 (−6509, 8706) − 782 (− 6800, 7705) 4374 (− 2569, 14,009) 3151 (− 3783, 12,296)
Male − 277 (− 3582, 4460) − 481 (− 3662, 3970) 2363 (− 1347, 7455) 1743 (− 1960, 6583)
Female 19 (− 2946, 4286) − 301 (− 3134, 3712) 2011 (− 1259, 6533) 1408 (− 1843, 5795)
Deaths averted or delayed by cause:
Cardiovascular disease −347 (− 5565, 6946) − 573 (− 5539, 6308) 4078 (− 1708, 12,085) 3136 (− 2793, 10,710)
Cancer 89 (− 1236, 2030) − 209 (− 1511, 1681) 295 (− 1067, 2287) 15 (− 1388, 2039)
Deaths averted or delayed by behavioural risk factor:
Fruit and vegetables 995 (− 4737, 9177) 290 (− 5179, 8246) 1198 (− 4729, 9478) 656 (− 5394, 9068)
Fibre − 366 (− 1989, 2651) −750 (− 2275, 1815) 982 (− 1295, 5045) 319 (− 1723, 3793)
Fats − 1025 (− 1768,-349) − 787 (− 1541, − 71) 182 (−947, 1229) 180 (− 922, 1197)
Salt 129 (− 579, 1020) −455 (− 285, 1486) 2052 (716, 3776) 2016 (651, 3781)
Deaths averted or delayed when changes in energy intake are taken into account
Total 996 (− 5632, 9519) −228 (− 6803, 8205) 9450 (2468, 18,851) 6795 (− 203, 15,755)