Table 4 Incident IHD, stroke and diabetes cases, cumulated over the 10-year projection period (among people aged ≥55 years in projection year 1)
| Â | Males | Females | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Scenarios | Overall | Low education | Medium education | High education | Overall | Low education | Medium education | High education |
Incident cases in the reference-scenario | ||||||||
 #Ref: Reference-scenario | 2,289,341 | 269,392 | 1,279,684 | 740,265 | 2,385,012 | 908,950 | 1,227,391 | 248,671 |
Intervention-induced health effects (Difference in incident cases between intervention scenarios and reference-scenario) | ||||||||
 #1: PROMOTE-undifferentiated | −3589 | − 677 | − 1694 | − 1218 | −4381 | − 1893 | − 1922 | − 566 |
 #2: PROMOTE-differentiated | − 3743 | − 1045 | − 1256 | − 1442 | − 6220 | − 4334 | − 1264 | −622 |
 #3: Downward-gradient | − 4172 | −1045 | − 2128 | − 999 | − 7163 | −4334 | − 2463 | − 366 |
 #4: Upward-gradient | −5829 | − 555 | − 2128 | − 3146 | − 4966 | − 1531 | −2463 | − 972 |
 #5: Equalizing | −31,687 | − 8380 | −23,307 | 0 | − 59,173 | −37,841 | −21,332 | 0 |
 #6: Guideline | −219,783 | −29,969 | − 127,878 | − 61,936 | −266,496 | − 112,281 | − 131,041 | −23,174 |
Distribution of intervention-induced health gain (Education-specific intervention effects measured against overall intervention effect) | ||||||||
 #1: PROMOTE-undifferentiated | 100% | 18.9% | 47.2% | 33.9% | 100% | 43.2% | 43.9% | 12.9% |
 #2: PROMOTE-differentiated | 100% | 27.9% | 33.6% | 38.5% | 100% | 69.7% | 20.3% | 10.0% |
 #3: Downward-gradient | 100% | 25.0% | 51.0% | 23.9% | 100% | 60.5% | 34.4% | 5.1% |
 #4: Upward-gradient | 100% | 9.5% | 36.5% | 54.0% | 100% | 30.8% | 49.6% | 19.6% |
 #5: Equalizing | 100% | 26.4% | 73.6% | 0.0% | 100% | 63.9% | 36.1% | 0.0% |
 #6: Guideline | 100% | 13.6% | 58.2% | 28.2% | 100% | 42.1% | 49.2% | 8.7% |
Proportion of the maximal achievable health gain (Intervention-induced health effects in scenarios #1 to #5 measured against intervention-induced health effects in scenario #6) | ||||||||
 #1: PROMOTE-undifferentiated | 1.6% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 2.4% |
 #2: PROMOTE-differentiated | 1.7% | 3.5% | 1.0% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 3.9% | 1.0% | 2.7% |
 #3: Downward-gradient | 1.9% | 3.5% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 2.7% | 3.9% | 1.9% | 1.6% |
 #4: Upward-gradient | 2.7% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 5.1% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 4.2% |
 #5: Equalizing | 14.4% | 28.0% | 18.2% | 0.0% | 22.2% | 33.7% | 16.3% | 0.0% |
 #6: Guideline | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% |