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Table 4 Incident IHD, stroke and diabetes cases, cumulated over the 10-year projection period (among people aged ≥55 years in projection year 1)

From: Equity impacts of interventions to increase physical activity among older adults: a quantitative health impact assessment

  Males Females
Scenarios Overall Low education Medium education High education Overall Low education Medium education High education
Incident cases in the reference-scenario
 #Ref: Reference-scenario 2,289,341 269,392 1,279,684 740,265 2,385,012 908,950 1,227,391 248,671
Intervention-induced health effects (Difference in incident cases between intervention scenarios and reference-scenario)
 #1: PROMOTE-undifferentiated −3589 − 677 − 1694 − 1218 −4381 − 1893 − 1922 − 566
 #2: PROMOTE-differentiated − 3743 − 1045 − 1256 − 1442 − 6220 − 4334 − 1264 −622
 #3: Downward-gradient − 4172 −1045 − 2128 − 999 − 7163 −4334 − 2463 − 366
 #4: Upward-gradient −5829 − 555 − 2128 − 3146 − 4966 − 1531 −2463 − 972
 #5: Equalizing −31,687 − 8380 −23,307 0 − 59,173 −37,841 −21,332 0
 #6: Guideline −219,783 −29,969 − 127,878 − 61,936 −266,496 − 112,281 − 131,041 −23,174
Distribution of intervention-induced health gain (Education-specific intervention effects measured against overall intervention effect)
 #1: PROMOTE-undifferentiated 100% 18.9% 47.2% 33.9% 100% 43.2% 43.9% 12.9%
 #2: PROMOTE-differentiated 100% 27.9% 33.6% 38.5% 100% 69.7% 20.3% 10.0%
 #3: Downward-gradient 100% 25.0% 51.0% 23.9% 100% 60.5% 34.4% 5.1%
 #4: Upward-gradient 100% 9.5% 36.5% 54.0% 100% 30.8% 49.6% 19.6%
 #5: Equalizing 100% 26.4% 73.6% 0.0% 100% 63.9% 36.1% 0.0%
 #6: Guideline 100% 13.6% 58.2% 28.2% 100% 42.1% 49.2% 8.7%
Proportion of the maximal achievable health gain (Intervention-induced health effects in scenarios #1 to #5 measured against intervention-induced health effects in scenario #6)
 #1: PROMOTE-undifferentiated 1.6% 2.3% 1.3% 2.0% 1.6% 1.7% 1.5% 2.4%
 #2: PROMOTE-differentiated 1.7% 3.5% 1.0% 2.3% 2.3% 3.9% 1.0% 2.7%
 #3: Downward-gradient 1.9% 3.5% 1.7% 1.6% 2.7% 3.9% 1.9% 1.6%
 #4: Upward-gradient 2.7% 1.9% 1.7% 5.1% 1.9% 1.4% 1.9% 4.2%
 #5: Equalizing 14.4% 28.0% 18.2% 0.0% 22.2% 33.7% 16.3% 0.0%
 #6: Guideline 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%